104 Decision Tree – A Numeric Example M:11 s111

MasterClass: Risk for Portfolio, Program, Project and PMO Leaders, Managers and Analysts - From unAware to Highly Capable...

M0: Risk Management from unAware to Highly Capable (M0, v1-4, s1-5, 19mins)

Video: 1 Hello and Welcome M:0-s1 (+2) (0:50)
Video: 2 The real world - What do you see? M:0-s3 (2:38)
Video: 3 Our Journey - How this course approaches risk management facilitation M:0 s4 (8:33)
Video: 4 Contents, Structure & Objectives M:0-s5 (7:24)
pdf Slides Download and Mobile-Friendly Hyperlinked, Animated, Graphics
Exercise and Case-Study WorkBook - Online and Downloadable formats

M1: Scene Setting - A Facilitators and Practitioner's Overview of How-To Run the Risk Process Day to Day (M1, v5-12, s6-14, 68mins)

5 Module Intro and The structured, procedural framework by which Risk Management steps are carried out day to day M1 s6-7 (10:09)
6 Practitioner's Day-to-day guide to Running Risk Planning Workshops - Aims and Conduct (Also see Module 17) - (M1 s8) (9:12)
7 Day-to-day guide to Running Risk Identification Workshops - Aims and Conduct (See M 7 for Techniques and Tools) M1 s9 (11:59)
8 Day-to-day guide - Running Risk Assessment Sizing and Prioritisation Workshops (See M 9 for Techniques & Tools) M1 s10 (6:53)
9 Day-to-day guide - Running Response Development Workshops - Aims and Conduct (See M 10 T & T) M1 s11 (9:37)
10 Day-to-day guide to 1-2-1 & Small group explorations of risk - Aims and Conduct M1 s12 (5:52)
11 Day-to-day guide to routine maintenance of the risk register/backlog by PMO Analyst or Project-Program-Portfolio Manager M1 s13 (9:12)
12 Guide to day-to-day baseline management for Risk monitoring, Re-assessment and Alternate responses selection M1 s14 (4:51)

M2: Understanding What Risk is (M2, v13-20, s15-22, 40mins)

13 Recap the Day to Day and position the definitions coming next m2s15 (1:50)
14 Describe Risk's three parts M2s16 (4:38)
15 Investor and Developer view-point and how AGILE affects perspective M2s17 (7:13)
16 High risk or Fragile business case versus Low risk or robust promises M2s18 (3:19)
17 Two parties at risk in DIFFERENT ways M2s19 (6:19)
18 Governance and Scope of Risk for Investor and Developer M2s20 (7:13)
19 Risk is the Emotion of Balancing Loss and Gain (and contracts) M2s21 (4:46)
20 Good Risk facilitation requires awareness of Feelings M2s22 (4:34)

M3: Basic First Steps Good Risk Management Requires Everyone's Awareness (M3, v21-27 s23-29, 53mins)

21 Recap of so far and this Module's Introduction M3 s23 (7:31)
22 A Constant Need and 8 Steps M3 s24 (11:28)
23 Attitude May Be Industry Specific M3 s25 (7:39)
24 Awareness Is The Key To Risk Management M3 s26 (4:46)
x25 Exercise 1 Intro: Risk Seeking Versus Risk Avoiding M3 x27 (11:03)
x26 Exercise 1: What would You Do? Attitude to Risk M3 x28 (2:05)
27 Risk Attitude Workshops M3 s29 (8:04)

Module 4: Basic Characteristics That Are Key to Managing Risks Well (M4, v28-39 s30-42, 71m)

28 Basic Characteristics Key to Managing Risks Well M4 s30 (0:17)
29 Definitions: Threat Opportunity Bonus Windfall M4 s31 (4:38)
30 Characteristics: Considering Impacts M4 s32 (8:06)
31 Characteristics: Causes M4 s33 (6:21)
32 Characteristics To Consider In Risk - Proximity M4 s34 (7:15)
33 CauseS condition ConsequenceS C-C-C M4 s35 (5:23)
34 Event Chains Choosing Mitigations & Possible Value of Categorisation M4 s36 (6:12)
35 Cost Risk and Schedule Risk M4 s37 (5:59)
36 From Certainty to Unknowable in Advance M4 s38 (5:53)
37 Risk Management Ownership and Governance M4 s39 (7:57)
38 Statistics, Can Stats Be Useful To Project Change’s Risk Management!? M4 s40-1 (8:22)
39 EMV is Dangerous M4 s42 (4:56)

Module 5: Escalation and Links to Governance (M5, v40-46, s43-49, 37m)

40. Escalation M:5 s43 (0:59)
41. Definitions: Problem and Issue M:5 s44 (4:50)
42. Treatable or Not Certain or Not Good or Bad Mandatory or Discretionary M:5 s45 (8:49)
43. “Deliver The Result Not The Process” M:5 s46 (5:21)
44. Problem vs. Issue Is A Governance Concept M:5 s47 (4:19)
45. Governance Delivery Cascades From Policy M:5 s48 (7:21)
46. Example Risk Policy M:5 s49 (4:55)

Module 6: Roles Responsibilities and Risk Ownership (Stake-holding) M:6, v47049, s50-53, 19m)

x47. Exercise 2: Risk Ownership & Stake-holding RnR Ex M:6 s50-x51 (2:42)
48. Risk Roles and Responsibility Template M:6 s52 (9:17)
49. Roles Required in Risk Management M:6 s53 (and optionally Case-Study #1) (7:06)

Module 7: Risk Identification Procedures Tools & Tips (M:7 v50-62, s54-66, 55m)

50. Risk Identification Procedures Tools & Tips M:7 s54 (0:50)
51. First You Have To See The Risk! M:7 s55 (0:50)
52. Proper Risk Description M:7 s56 (2:15)
53. ‘Good’ Risk Description M:7 s57 (1:12)
54. Identification’s Steps M:7 s58 (6:31)
55. Techniques for Identification M:7 s59 (8:31)
56. Logic Based Approaches M:7 s60 (6:11)
57. Use of Techniques M:7 s61 (6:44)
58. Prompt Lists M:7 s62 (5:13)
59. Identification Should Not Do More M:7 s63 (3:03)
60. Identification Workshop Preparation and Conduct M:7 s64 (3:50)
61. Techniques and Tools: Risk Identification M:7 s65 (4:59)
62. Checklists from Acronyms etc M:7 s66 (4:21)

Module 8: Recordkeeping M:8 s67-72 (8, v63-68, s67-72, 20mins

63 Recordkeeping M:8 s67 (0:53)
64 Risk Register Example From Industry (Too simple) M:8 s68 (3:52)
65 More Sophisticated Risk Register Entry M:8 s69 (6:09)
66 A25-Risk Register Product Description M:8 s70 (3:21)
67 A24-Risk Management Strategy Product Description† M:8 s71 (2:41)
x68 Case Study 2: Running A Risk Identification Workshop M:8 x72 (3:23)

Module 9: Assessment (Sizing Risks) M:9 v69-83, s73-88, 85mins

69 Risk Assessment (Sizing) and Perception M:9 s73-74 (2:54)
70 ‘Good’ Risk Assessment M:9 s75 (8:12)
71 Assessment’s Pre-requisite And Steps M:9 s76 (6:36)
72 Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment M:9 s77 (4:55)
73 Two Aspects of Subjective Assessment M:9 s78 (6:11)
74 (Visceral) Scales Help Consistent Assessment M:9 s79 (4:56)
75 Assessment Needs Three Dimensions M:9 s80 (4:13)
76 Probability of Occurrence M:9 s81 (5:57)
77 3 4 and 5 Point Qualitative Assessment M:9 s82 (2:24)
78 Probability Scale 1of2 M:9 s83 (5:11)
79 Probability Scale 2 of 2 M:9 s84 (6:44)
80 Normal Distribution M:9 s85 (9:01)
81 Reporting Assessment M:9 s86 (2:58)
82 Techniques and Tools: Risk Assessment M:9 s87 (5:53)
x83 Case-Study #3: Building Risk Scales M:9 x88 (9:12)

Risk M10 s89-102Ex Risk Responses M10 V84-95, s89-102, 65mins

84 Develop Response Options M:10 s89-90 (2:43)
85 Where to Aim A Response M:10 s91 (6:50)
86 Pain-Gain Share Contracts M:10 s92 (10:37)
87 Responses Interact M:10 s93 (5:55)
88 Responses To Outliers (and Factored value!) M:10 s94 (9:55)
89 Business Case Impacts M:10 s95 (7:45)
90 Categorisation May Help Response Development M:10 s96 (3:33)
91 Affinity Response Identification by ‘Classification’ M:10 s97 (3:33)
92 Where ‘Best’ to Address Each Risk’s Elements M:10 s98 (4:14)
93 Threat Response Types M:10 s99 (3:47)
94 Care-Caution-Alert-Alarm Response Hierarchy EG from industry M:10 s100-101 (4:34)
x95 Exercise: Response Development M:10 x102 (1:47)

Module: 11: Prioritisation (Response Selection) M:11 v96-108, s103-115, 60mins

96 Prioritisation (˜Response Selection) M:11 s103 (2:31)
97 Risk Scoring and Ranking M:11 s104 (6:56)
98 Text-Book Probability – Impact Grid (PIG) adapted from the PMBoK-Guide … M:11 s105 (4:13)
99 Common Partial Risk Scoring Models M:11 s106 (8:46)
100 Sample Threat Assessment Matrix From Oil Industry (Upstream) M:11 s107 (1:49)
101 Prioritisation By Urgency Risk Timeframes M:11 s108 (4:09)
102 Seriousness and Growth M:11 s109 (4:46)
103 Arithmetic Selection Methods M:11 s110 (2:42)
104 Decision Tree – A Numeric Example M:11 s111 (5:57)
105 Payoff Tables M:11 s112 (6:40)
106 Techniques and Tools: Risk Prioritisation M:11 s113 (2:40)
107 Prioritisation of Resources Use: Enterprise+ Portfolio Program Project Team M:11 s114 (5:06)
108 Exercise: and Selection Checklist M:11 s115 (3:40)

Module 12: Summary of Journey So Far and Now A Change of Direction M:12 v109, s116-118, 8mins

109 Summary and Our Direction of Travel M:12 s116-118 (8:12)

Module 13: Allowances in the Measurement Baseline M:13 v110-129, s119-142, 117mins

110 Allowances in the Measurement Baseline M:13 s119 (1:17)
111 Projects Are Managed To A Baseline M:13 s120 (6:06)
112 Overly Simple M:13 s121 (9:21)
113 Two Types of ‘Additional†’ Allowances Contingency & Reserve M:13 s122 (3:54)
114 Two Sources of Contingency M:13 s123 (10:01)
115 (At Least) Three Types of Contingency M:13 s124 (6:15)
116 PERT Formula M:13 s125 (3:50)
117 PERT: Common Risk Inclusive Estimating Technique M:13 s126 (6:25)
118 Uncertainty Decreases As… Improved Estimates M:13 s127-128 (6:19)
119 More Realistic? Maybe Not Yet Be Sufficiently Practical! M:13 s129 (5:05)
120 Sensitivity M:13 s130 (7:06)
121 Path Duration With Fan-In M:13 s131 (4:25)
122 Expressing Confidence M:13 s132 (5:41)
123 QRA Monte-Carlo Simulation Example for Duration M:13 s133-134 (5:10)
124 Building Burns-Downs or PMB or PV or the PC or the BCWS M:13 s135-136 (7:40)
125 Showing Contingency and Reserves in the Cost & Schedule M:13 s137 (5:20)
126 Theory of Constraints Buffers in the Schedule M:13 s138 (5:33)
x127 Exercise: Consolidate Knowledge 3pt Estimate Answers M:13 x139 (4:04)
x128 Optional Exercise: Cost Contingency M:13 x140 (9:34)
129 Techniques and Tools: of Risk Inclusive Baselines M:13 s141 (3:56)

Module 14: Now We Manage It All ?! M:14, v130-132, s142-145, 6mins

130 Manage It Al and After Preventative Measures M:14 s142-143 (2:18)
131 The Risk Management Procedure M:14 s144 (1:13)
132 Risk Responses In The Schedule M:14 s145 (2:52)

Module 15: Contingency Retirement and Reporting M:15, v133-140, s146-153, 65mins

133 Contingency Retirement and Reporting M:15 s146 (1:22)
134 Risk Reporting M:15 s147 (9:33)
135 Reporting and Retirement M:15 s148 (2:50)
136 Risk Reporting Needs M:15 s149 (9:17)
137 Risk Reporting At Senior Levels M:15 s150 (10:30)
138 Retiring Contingency Mechanics M:15 s151 (10:37)
139 Presenting Contingency Disposition M:15 s152 (15:34)
140 Reporting Risk M:15 s153 (4:51)

Module 16: Planning Risk Management M:16, v141, s154-156, 9mins

141 Planning Risk Management M:16 s154-156 (8:33)

Module 17: Course Summary and Conclusions M:17, v142, s157-158, 6mins

142 Course Summary and Conclusions M:17 s157-158 (5:49)

104 Decision Tree – A Numeric Example M:11 s111

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